The Curious Case of Jerry Brown

Here's a weird little chart showing the number of times each of the prospective California Democratic nominees got mentioned in a blog over the last six months.


That darker blue line hovering over everyone else's is Jerry Brown's. Except for the Newsomania of the convo, Moonbeam has consistently dominated the conversation in the blogosphere. I remain puzzled by this popularity, but I still probably wouldn't give him odds against the coming Newsomite hordes...

The Obama Eight: CA-24

Updated July 11

Alright, 'nuff stalling. Let's git this sucker started!


Introducing the first of the "Obama Eight" series, California's 24th.

GOP incumbent: Elton Gallegly

Registration:

Dem : 36%
GOP : 42%

DTS : 18%


Obama's performance (margin / vote):
+2.8% / 50.5%


2008 results
Marta Jorgensen : 41.8%
Gallegly : 58.2%




The Congressman:

Elton Gallegly's been in Congress for over two decades and, if you're like me, you probably wouldn't know him from Adam. He's solidly conservative, to the point that he's actively sought to thwart California's medicinal marijuana laws. He does support earmarks, however, as he's got a button on the front of his official page for "appropriations requests." He also tried to retire in 2006, but was apparently coaxed back.

The 24th, of course, is pretty dang red. The district covers the interiors of Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, making it the gerrymandered sister district to the 23rd, which covers the more liberal coastal areas. CA-24 has been inching ever closer to even since it was drawn. The population centers on the urban area around Oxnard.

Gallegly's a successful incumbent because for most of his career he was bringing home nearly two thirds of the electorate, including 2006. (He's also got a really cute dog.) That changed in 2008 when Obama got a clean win on Gallegly's turf, just barely breaking the fifty percent barrier. Gallegly's performance slipped accordingly. Fifty-eight percent of the vote, however, under any other circumstances would be called a commanding victory.


The Dems:
Marta Jorgensen, the 2008 Dem nominee, is a perennial candidate in the 24th, but she raised barely more $10,000. Observers therefore consider her 42% a "floor" for future Dems. With proper funding and organization, how much higher could that have gone?

A little bit, but probably not by eight points. You would basically have to contact every single voter in the district at a cost of $3 million plus. Nonetheless, DCCC saw enough potential to drop some radio ads this year, so it's being watched.

2010's Dem primary will feature one new face, Shawn Stern. He's a younger guy and an environmental consultant by day. His company's website, Green Footprint, LLC, features a Union of Concerned Scientists warning letter regarding environmental issues. It's safe to say that green activism will be a big plank in Stern's platform. The question is whether it is his starting block or his finish line.


Marie Panec, an educator in the area, and Tim Allison, a Realtor, are other names mentioned.


Outlook:

Scenario AIf Gallegly drops out, this open seat could be very competitive. If a Dem looks to be pushing on $100,000 per quarter in fundraising, it deserves serious attention from the CDP and DCCC.
Scenario BIf Gallegly sticks it out and doesn't go totally broke in his own primary, then this probably becomes a four-year race for the Dem. If the Dem can improve considerably on the so-called floor of 42%, (let's say, narrowing the margin to single digits, a >3% improvement) then he or she could make up the difference on the 2012 Obama Express. That justifies creating a competitive district for the region.

And in either case, I'd advise the Dem to very seriously consider a No Earmarks pledge or something like that. Going out on a limb, I'll suggest that the 24th's DTSers did not leave the GOP because of their bellicose rhetoric on spending, but in spite of it. A socially liberal, fiscally conservative Dem can win CA-24.


Important links

Candidates:
Jorgensen for Congress
Shawn Stern for Congress

News:
Brian Dennert, Ventury County Star

Party:
Ventura Co. Dems
There are a few Dem Clubs around the area, including in Lompoc, but the Santa Barbara Co. Dems' website was down at the time of this posting.

~~~

This is an on-going process, so if you have tips, corrections, or grievances to share, please leave 'em in the comments section or shoot me an email.


Metanote & Shameless Self-Promotion: Last month, David Dayen at Calitics also expressed his pessimism about the Obama Eight, despite the DCCC's commitment, and for basically the same reasons as me. As he put it,
"Some would argue that, properly resourced, these seats would suddenly become very winnable. I give you CA-50, [however,] where Nick Leibham consistently beat Brian Bilbray in fundraising and maxed out at the 45% ceiling on Democrats in that district."
Although Dayen's looking at this from a different ideological perspective than I am I think our pessimism is not political but institutional. Regardless where you sit, the Democratic establishment does not seem ready to take on this challenge.

I hope DCCC proves us wrong.

Excessive Caution

Last night, I had a conversation with an acquaintance about caution in politics, and perhaps that it can be excessive. I'm not cautious, I'm paranoid, but her point was well-made. And this morning, Senator Leahy offered a nice example.

On Meet the Press, he and Senator Sessions were asked about the schedule and timing of the Sotomayor hearing and confirmation. Leahy interjected at the end of the discussion to give the Standard Senate Response, or SSR:
The Senate operates by its own procedures and I will make a determination in accordance with Senate process and in consultation with the Ranking Member.

The SSR works as an answer to almost any question, including "You want to do Mexican or sushi for lunch, Senator Leahy?"

Unfortunately, about thirty seconds earlier, Leahy had lost his noggin, necessitating the SSR. When asked if he would keep to President Obama's preferred schedule for the confirmation, he answered defensively,
"I'll keep to MY schedule!"
This got a knowing smirk from Sessions, who was probably nudging Leahy off camera and muttering, "WTF, dude? Much respect, but you gotta clean that up!" And so he did.

Trying using the SSR in your own daily life!

The Battle Royale over Harry Reid

I have remained shrewdly aloof of the whole Harry Reid re-election thing. It's gonna be bloody, and you don't need me to tell you that. However, when Senator Reid gets his own headline button on the front page of RGJ.com, well, that sets off alarms. (Especially when that headline is sandwiched between stories about Memorial Day and sunless tanning.)

The story is about Our Country Deserves Better, a conservative group that just released a $100,000 ad blitz to oppose Senator Reid's re-election. They hope to spend "in excess of $1 million" by November 2010. For now we'll ignore the $7.5 million already raised for Reid's cause.

There is no viable Republican candidate yet declared for the race and even Senator John Ensign acknowledges that that needs to happen "in the next few months." Why groups would be spending money on a race that doesn't yet exist seems... curious.

So let's cut to the chase: Senator Reid's 2010 campaign has so far been not a battle between the parties, but an arena for two simmering internecine fights, and it will likely remain so until nearly the end.

Our Country Deserves Better is closely tied to Move America Forward, a soft-money outfit run by pro-war California conservatives. Our good friend Deborah Johns is a regular collaborator. Y'know, that lady who attacks people's patriotism in front of incorrectly flown American flags.



What is telling is who attended the group's presser: Assemblyman Don Gustavson, who primaried long-serving Republican Assemblyman, John Marvel, and Sharon Angle, a possible challenger to Reid who tried (and failed) to ouster Nevada Senate Republican Leader Bill Raggio. These are two of the foot soldiers in the guerrilla war against the Nevada GOP.

In the article, Angle brought up California's budget catastrophe. That's a bit tactless, considering her latest patrons are the very people who precipitated the catastrophe. Not satisfied to sink their own state, they're now exporting their services to Nevada, whose lawmakers, faced with similar procedural hurdles, actually do their jobs.

Meanwhile on the left, Mother Jones has led the insurgency against Reid with much sniping and a glorious hit piece trying to slander him as a friend of the mining industry. (In other news, the Pope is Catholic.) You can bet there's more to come. Reid is not popular among die hard liberals who think he's feckless on a number of counts.

Anyway, Sharon Angle is not a viable candidate. No candidate is viable who can't win as a Nevadan first and nothing ticks off Nevadans more than sanctimonious Californians. I can think of at least one Nevada GOPer who could lick Senator Reid, but they've yet to make much noise.

Until that viable Nevadan shows up, this will continue to be just a primary-by-proxy.

The Obama Eight: The '08 Gang

On the suggestion of faithful reader, Laine, I'm going to add one more element to the analysis of the Obama Eight. Then, we'll get to work looking at each of these races in greater detail.

In my previous posts I did not factor in the performance of the Dems in 2008. My thesis is, essentially, that those Dems did not ride Obama's coattails as far as they could have. We'll test that by adding my flipability factor on to each Dem's actual performance. The lower the number, the better they did.

[(Obama% - McCain%) - (GOP Reg% - Dem Reg%) + 2008 margin of defeat]

(Thus, the flipability of the district will act as a handicap to judge the Dems against one another.)

Metanote
: For the time being, let's set aside debates about the nature of Obama's coattails and the tactics of using such in an actual campaign. Each of these districts maintains a registration advantage for the Republicans, so the on-the-ground reality was not in favor of anyone.


DistrictIncumbentChallengerFlipabilityMargin of DefeatFlipability Gap
44thCalvertBill Hedrick-62.4%-3.6
50thBilbrayNick Leibham-55.1%0.1
48thCampbellSteve Young-1615.1%0.9
3rdLungrenBill Durston-25.5%3.5
24thGalleglyMarta Ann Jorgensen-316.4%13.4
25thMcKeonJackie Conaway015.6%15.6
26thDreierRuss Warner413.1%17.1
45thBono MackJulie Bornstein116.6%17.6

It is really important to qualify these numbers. Two important factors not included are money and experience. Each candidate's fundraising matters, but so too does the incumbent's. Also, some of these candidates were running for the second time, while others were first timers.

I was hesitant to publish this because I don't want to be seen as disparaging the Dems and their campaigns. Despite my ranting, I could not have won any of these races either. My purpose is to attract institutional attention, showing where opportunities were in 2008, with the hope of building even better campaigns for 2010.

With all that said, if you were on one of these campaigns (or are one of these candidates!) please share you experiences. What did you do that got you ahead? What would you do differently?

Editing Pessimism


If you know me personally, then you know that depression plays a big role in my personality. I can quickly fall into bouts of melancholy.

One of the greatest realizations I came to in my adolescence was that being depressed is not wrong. That is, my melancholic personality was not a condemnation of my moral being.

From there, the next step was learning that it is a mark of maturity to control my emotions. Certainly, spontaneous grief and joy are what makes life meaningful, but day-to-day functioning requires some ability to express emotions by choice rather than by habit.

Finally, the toughest step is figuring out how to modify my own emotions. I keep looking for new tools every day, and I want to share one with you that seems to pay dividends.

This speech about optimism has an interesting strategy. The topic is programming, but the theme is overcoming pessimism. Special thanks to DivaLion for sharing this on her blog.

The basic gist is that we consider a given circumstance along three axes, namely

  • personal vs. impersonal
  • general vs. specific
  • permanent vs. temporary

Pessimists like myself instinctively apply personal, general and permanent attributes to negative events. For example, after being rebuked for a mistake at work I might think to myself, "I'll never get the hang of this job." Mapped out, that sentence looks like this:

I'll (personal) never (permanent) get the hang of this job (general).

An alternative thought could be

My boss (impersonal) criticized one of the things I did (specific) yesterday (temporary).

The difference keeps negative thoughts in the realm of constructive criticism rather than condemnation, and pessimists tend to do the opposite with positive events.

The trick is that this requires cognitive therapy, that is, thought training. It means catching when I find myself thinking the former and reformulating my private ideas into the latter.

Editing is the biggest challenge in writing. Self-editing seems even harder but even more vital. So far, this maneuver's helped on several occasions.

Two Men

Political philosophy time!

Here are two quotes from two men:

A man who wishes to act entirely up to his professions of virtue soon meets with what destroys him among so much that is evil. For if everything is considered carefully, it will be found that something which looks like virtue, if followed, would be his ruin; whilst something else, which looks like vice, yet followed brings him security and prosperity.
- Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince


The means we use must be as pure as the ends we seek. I have tried to make clear that it is wrong to use immoral means to attain moral ends. But now I must affirm that it is just as wrong, or perhaps even more so, to use moral means to preserve immoral ends.
- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., "Letter from Birmingham Jail"


Before going out into the tall grass, some background assumptions: Machiavelli and Dr. King are both writing at very different times for very different reasons.

The Prince is Machiavelli's attempt to convince Lorenzo de' Medici to take up the task of Italian patriotism, and give him the political tools to do so successfully. This quote is what usually gets boiled down to the maxim 'the end justifies the means,' although Machiavelli himself never used that phrase. For him, the greatest evil of his time was Italy's perpetual submission to foreign invaders, and the peninsula's hapless rulers were to blame. Thousands of Italians died in every war, and thousands more lived in perpetual meanness under siege and misrule. These evils, according to Machiavelli, were allowed to occur because Italy's leaders were feckless and refused to shoulder the burden of dirty, sinful work, so their subjects could live in peace and faith. As John Adams formulated it, "I must study politics and war, that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy."

Dr. King's Birmingham letter is also directed at a specific audience and a wider readership, simultaneously. He is answering a letter from Christian and Jewish leaders in Birmingham while incarcerated in the city's jail for "parading without a permit." Quite forcefully and stubbornly, Dr. King is justifying his nonviolent direct action methods by demonstrating that unjust laws must be justly broken, and that nonviolence does so appropriately. This particular passage chastises the leaders for their commendation of the Birmingham police, who restrained their public actions in order to maintain the injustice of segregation and racism. Indeed, siccing dogs on the protesters, denying them food, and mistreating them in custody can hardly be called 'restraint.' Those actions are, Dr. King says, the charlatanry of bigots and the city's religious leaders are their oblivious patrons.

So, I guess Machiavelli and Dr. King are not writing about very different things at all.

Clearly, though, Machiavelli is ready to sacrifice morality before the altar of happiness (or Christianity before the nation-state), while Dr. King defines morality as the struggle towards happiness (or Christianity's contribution to the nation-state). In practice, the two men's philosophies are identical: if the end is just, the means will necessarily be also just.

But Dr. King's admonition of "immoral means to attain moral ends" seems so diametrically opposed to Machiavelli's 'ruinous virtue.' Can they be squared? Another factor to consider is Dr. King's reproach of black nationalists' methods and his certainty that their strategy would result in bloodshed across the South. Just as the Birmingham police seem to act morally, the black nationalists' ends only seem moral. In reality, they would be a nightmare.

The operation that is central for both men is the determination of the justness of the end. Both are quite certain of the justness of their particular end and go to great lengths to prove such.

Machiavelli's work, as well as his other works such as The Discourses on Livy, details all the failures of Italy's rulers and implies the loss of life, liberty, and wealth (i.e. happiness) they hasten. Dr. King, for his part, explains that the first step of nonviolence is to determine that injustice does somewhere exist, and in Birmingham he cites the city's brutal record of mistreatment and several bombings of homes and churches.

Thus, just as Machiavelli would say that being a good Christian ruler is without true virtue if it results in the suffering of people, Dr. King would argue that no act is Christian in nature which precipitates injustice.

I doubt the two men would see eye to eye, though they share one more thing in common: a profound dissatisfaction with the church. Both men criticize so-called Christians for oppressing themselves and their neighbors with mealy-mouthed religious rhetoric. Dr. King, of course, was a minister, though he was frustrated by his White co-religionists' unwillingness to answer the call to justice. Machiavelli, however, was no man of the cloth, but was also a contemporary to the most notorious of the 'secular Popes' such as the syphilitic Alexander VI. Both men were raconteurs of similar men in different robes.

It is without a doubt difficult to find common ground between Machiavelli and Dr. King - probably a fool's errand. But it is equally hard to deny both men's insight into the nature of justice, and impossible to ignore their contributions to the art of politics, insofar as it seeks to secure human happiness.


Perhaps for us, their lessons can only be this: never let what appears righteous deter us from what is righteous.