CB's performance in CA-04


Above is a graphical representation of how well Charlie Brown did at pulling in conservative voters in each of the 4th District's counties. The width of the columns approximate the relative population of each county.

The graph does not represent Charlie's vote results in each county. Those were wafer thin and alone do little to show how well Charlie did at achieving his primary objective: getting conservatives to vote for him.

To show that, I've measured the percentage of the vote Charlie won beyond what would be expected from his base. We'll call this Charlie's "performance." Charlie's base is defined as registered Democrats and declined-to-states who are expected to vote Democratic.

We can see that Charlie achieved his goal in each county, but to disparate degrees. So, in Nevada County, Charlie did an excellent job of pulling in conservative voters, while in Modoc County he did not pull in as many. The raw numbers are below.

The biggest surprise is how well Charlie did in Placer County. Only Nevada County outperformed Placer (which was expected). In the deepest of red counties, he did a better job of pulling in conservatives than in El Dorado, Plumas or Sierra Counties.


Placer County - Vote
Charlie48.95%
McClintock51.05%

Charlie's Performance - 14.14%


Nevada County - Vote
Charlie57.68%
McClintock42.32%

Charlie's Performance - 17.51%


El Dorado County - Vote
Charlie49.31%
McClintock50.69%

Charlie's Performance - 12.60%


Sacramento County - Vote
Charlie46.83%
McClintock53.17%

Charlie's Performance - 10.45%


Butte County - Vote
Charlie47.46%
McClintock52.54%

Charlie's Performance - 6.43%


Sierra County - Vote
Charlie50.23%
McClintock49.77%

Charlie's Performance - 13.09%


Plumas County - Vote
Charlie52.13%
McClintock47.87%

Charlie's Performance - 12.39%


Lassen County - Vote
Charlie36.70%
McClintock63.30%

Charlie's Performance - 2.46%


Modoc County - Vote
Charlie37.26%
McClintock62.74%

Charlie's Performance - 3.32%


District Total - Vote
Charlie49.76%
McClintock50.24%

Charlie's Performance - 13.20%


(It's worth pointing out that Democrats in other red districts in California weren't able to pull this stunt. Across California, Democrats actually lost their own base to their Republican opponents.)

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